Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

In old science fiction plots, it took an extraterrestrial threat—usually aliens in space ships—to unite the quarreling peoples of Earth and make them appreciate the virtues of cooperation.

That’s exactly what it took last week to silence the usual sniping of Democrats and Republicans and bring about a rare show of bipartisanship in the House of Representatives. Only instead of UFOs, what brought legislators together was the threat of solar storms and other disruptions to the nation’s electric power grid.

As reported in NEXT100, the National Research Council, Department of Energy and other authorities have issued dire warnings about the potentially devastating effects of solar storms—or, more technically, “coronal mass ejections”—to the electric grid. Power surges caused by these solar eruptions can melt down critical transformers over enormous areas, shutting down power needed to pump water and fuel, and to run essential public safety, health and business services. In short, to use a non-scientific term, armageddon.

Remarkably, legislators who can’t decide whether to pass an extension of unemployment insurance, much less climate legislation, had no problem understanding the magnitude of this threat and taking action. After a rare unanimous committee endorsement, the House passed the Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act on June 9 by a voice vote. It now goes to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. 

The bill directs the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to come up with “reliability standards adequate to protect the bulk-power system from any reasonably foreseeable geomagnetic storm event.” It requires measures to ensure the availability of critical grid transformers and authorizes cost recovery for investments to safeguard the nation’s bulk-power system. It also addresses threats of terrorist attacks against the grid.

In floor speeches, several legislators commented on the powerful impact of a classified briefing last fall about the threat to U.S. national security and our basic way of life from grid vulnerability.

“ I think every Member in that top secret briefing left, having experienced a sobering moment in their lives, realizing the great responsibility we have to pass legislation that can deal with this problem,” said Rep. Ed Markey, D.-Mass.

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Maryland, summed up the need for the bill:

According to the National Academy of Sciences, this bill is necessary because there is one event that we will not avoid, and that is solar geomagnetic interference--a solar storm. If--really, when--we have a big one. . .  this will shut down our whole grid. It would cost us only about $100 million to protect the grid . . .  The consequences of inaction are dire. If our grid is destroyed, the National Academies warn it will cost us between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in damages, and it will take 4 to 10 years to recover.   With the grid's being down, more or less, for 4 to 10 years, one can only imagine the consequences to our society. This is a really important bipartisan bill, and I rise in very strong support.

Footnote: I could find only one significant news story about the bill. Apparently this rare show of bipartisan unity to prevent societal collapse wasn’t sexy enough to interest today’s media. However, the National Geographic channel plans a major show tomorrow night on "Electronic Armageddon." It posits the question: "What could happen if an electromagnetic pulse surged to earth, crippling every aspect of modern society's infrastructure?"

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

The BP oil blowout in the Gulf of Mexico wasn’t supposed to happen—no rig had ever failed so catastrophically in the United States. 9/11 wasn't supposed to happen either, nor the Great Depression. Few saw these unprecedented disasters coming, and like Cassandra, their warnings went unheeded.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb—best-selling author, hedge-fund trader and former professor of risk engineering—calls such unpredictable outliers “black swan events” (black swans were deemed mythical until discovered in Australia). Though few in number, they have an extreme impact on our society and the course of history. But because people look for patterns and predictability, they tend to be blind to the potential of such events ever happening.

An important report released today by the Department of Energy (DOE) and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) takes a much-needed look at three potential “black swan” scenarios that could have a devastating effect on the North American power grid: terrorist attacks (including cyber attacks) aimed at disrupting grid operations; pandemics that cripple the industry’s skilled workforce; and natural or man-made electromagnetic pulses that fry critical equipment, leading to widespread blackouts.

The electric power industry plans and trains for major risks every day, including severe weather, earthquakes, fires and even terrorist attacks at nuclear generating stations. But what the report calls “high-impact, low-frequency” events—in other words, black swans—have received scant attention. They are simultaneously too big, too difficult and too improbable to focus on.

So why bother now? Because failing to take precautions could have much graver consequences to this country, and the world, than were caused by failure to heed the warnings about hijackings in the August 6, 2001 CIA memo, “Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US.” As the new report notes:

The North American bulk power system is the backbone for modern society. It only takes a few moments of reflection on how reliant society-at-large has become on electricity-dependent technology to recognize the potential impacts a prolonged loss of power could have on North America. In addition to the immediate loss of lighting and electric appliances in the affected area, the supply of food, water, and fuel would degrade within days. The facile communication of information to the general population would be greatly complicated by the loss of cell phones, internet access, and television. The economy would virtually shut down as electronic transactions could no longer be processed. After several days, widespread social unrest and confusion would ensue.

DOE and NERC assembled a wide range of government, industry and academic experts for a workshop in December to assess thes mega-risks to the grid. Of particular importance is the section on solar storms—a subject covered at length in NEXT100 (here, here, here and here). The danger is that giant blasts of plasma ejected from the sun can induce electrical overloads on the grid, melting big transformers that would take months or years to replace—and leaving society paralyzed in the meantime.

The report cites recent analyses suggesting that “the potential extremes of the geomagnetic threat environment may be much greater than previously anticipated.” For one thing, it’s now apparent that solar storms are capable of delivering 10 times the energy of one in 1989 that blacked out nearly all of Quebec Province and damaged transformers as far away as England. Such storms, the report notes, “could entail the potential for widespread damage to . . . key assets of unprecedented proportions.”

The report disappoints when it comes to conclusions: instead of concrete steps, it calls for the creation of task forces and more attention by government authorities. Still every cure starts with a diagnosis. By highlighting these risks, DOE and NERC at least increase the odds of preventing a future disaster.

Posted by: Leonard Anderson

Several items relating to the business and technology of clean energy and the environment caught our attention this week:
 
Transmission companies are eying high-voltage underwater cables to carry more renewable power over long distances without having to erect unsightly towers and carve out wide corridors. Toronto-based Transmission Developers proposes to run a 370-mile cable from north of the Canadian border along the bottom of Lake Champlain and down the Hudson River to supply hydroelectricity to New York City. A 53-mile power cable has been placed under San Francisco Bay and an underwater line linking New Jersey to Long Island now carries 22 percent of Long Island's electricity. There are other plans to deliver wind energy from the Hawaiian islands of Molokai and Lanai to Oahu and from Maine along the Atlantic coast to Boston.

The global renewable energy industry gained ground in 2009 despite the recession and a revenue drop in the solar business, according to an annual report from research firm Clean Edge Inc. The overall industry spent $63.5 billion on wind farms and turbines, a 23.5 percent gain from 2008 helped by government stimulus money. The global biofuel business rose 29 percent to $44.9 billion. Solar power manufacturers fell by 20.3 percent to $30.7 billion due to a drop in the price of solar panels.

Solazyme Inc., a South San Francisco-based renewable oil and bioproducts company and a   leader in algal biotechnology, was selected No. 1 in sustainable biofuels technology at the 2nd Annual Sustainable Biofuels Market conference in Amsterdam. Solazyme is working on improving the efficiency and sustainability of biofuels production. Since the company's start in 2003, Solazyme says it has produced the world's first algae-based renewable diesel, the first 100 percent algae-based jet fuel and road-tested the first algae-derived biodiesel.  
 
Snack food giant Frito-Lay is going green with what it's calling the first compostable chips bag for its SunChips brand. The bags are made from corn and will break down within 14 weeks, the company says. "In a hot, active compost bin it will definitely compost within that time period," said Brad Rogers, Frito-Lay's North American manager of sustainable packaging. However, there's some doubt that many bags will reach a compost bin. "Few Americans compost in their backyards, and curbside pickup is typically limited to Western metropolises like the Bay Area and Seattle," says Green Inc.
 

Posted by: Leonard Anderson

Several items relating to the business and technology of clean energy and the environment caught our attention this week:

Looking for a green job? Check out "Clean-Tech Jobs Trends 2009" from research firm Clean Edge. The top five job sectors are solar; biofuel and biomaterials; conservation and efficiency; smart grid; and wind power, says Clean Edge. A listing of median salaries for a range of green jobs is included. Some samples: electric vehicles engineer, $63,000; solar systems designer, $42,600; green building energy auditor, $42,600. Highest salary was $106,000 for a renewable energy project developer and lowest was $36,100 for insulation workers. The report also lists the top 15 U.S. metropolitan areas for clean tech jobs. The top five are: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA; Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA; New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA; Boston-Worcester-Lawrence-Lowell-Brockton, MA-NH; and Washington-Baltimore, D.C.-MD-VA-WV.

How green is your campus? The "America's Greenest Campus" contest found that University of Maryland - College Park and Rio Salado College in Tempe, Ariz., were the schools with the most carbon reductions. More than 460 schools and 20,000 people participated in the contest, reducing nearly 19 million pounds of CO2, saving 28 million gallons of water and conserving 4.5 million kilowatts of electricity. The two schools will win $5,000 each. The competition was sponsored by SmartPower, a nonprofit clean energy marketing company, and Climate Culture, a clean-energy social networking site.

A powerful substation called Tres Amigas is proposed for Clovis, New Mexico, to physically connect the three main U.S. transmission grids -- Eastern, Western and Texas -- and carry renewable power from solar and wind farms in the middle of the country to customers on the coasts. The project is in an early stage and could cost $1 billion or more. It's proposed by a company run by Phil Harris, former CEO of the PJM Interconnection, the largest grid operator in the U.S.

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

How likely are we to be hit by a geomagnetic storm big enough to take down major power grids across the Northern hemisphere? What kinds of preparations have been made to avoid such an event paralyzing modern industrial civilization?

Some of those questions arose just last week in hearings before the House Homeland Security Committee, whose members took turns blasting the utility industry and public agencies for taking insufficient precautions against natural and man-made threats to the grid.

"Some in government have taken the position that (electromagnetic pulse) attack and  geomagnetic storm disruption are low-probability events," complained William Graham, chairman of the congressionally mandated Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse. "By ignoring large scale, catastrophic . . . vulnerability" the United States needlessly exposes itself to risk, he testified.

Expert opinions about the level of risk vary widely. A grid director at the California Independent System Operator told me that modern forecasting tools and protective equipment to prevent transformer failures mean "the chance of cascading blackouts caused by these solar events is highly unlikely."

On the other hand, an expert at the Edison Electric Institute admitted that "if several dozen large transformers overloaded and blew up, the full recovery time could be months or longer.  I envision an event would be cascading, that is, beginning at a specific point in a northern latitude (say, Quebec) and moving uncontrolled across paths of least resistance."

A spokeswoman for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which is tasked with preventing widespread blackouts, said only, "it's certainly an issue that NERC is looking into."

Finally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which monitors space weather, states unequivocally: "A single strong blast of solar wind can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions."

Let's start with some good news: For now, at least, the sun is acting like a sleeping kitten. Last year, the Sun went 266 days without showing a single sunspot, the quietest year since 1913. Though the sun started breaking out in dark spots again this June, most scientists believe the 11-year sunspot cycle will peak in 2013 at the lowest level since 1928.

The not-so-good news is that the sun could awaken from its slumber at any time and turn into a vicious lion. "As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems," said Doug Biesecker, a scientist at the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle."

As we saw yesterday, that 1859 storm, which electrocuted telegraph operators and lit the sky with pyrotechnics as far south as Panama, was stronger even than the 1921 event that a National Research Council study group said could shut down modern life across much of the Northern Hemisphere for a decade.

If the Sun were to get angry, several solar-observing satellites should detect the outbreak of a big geomagnetic storm and relay the information back to scientists on Earth. They include NASA's twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory satellites, launched in 2006, which provide information on the speed, trajectory and shape of so-called coronal mass ejections, multi-billion ton blobs of superhot gas that the sun fires our way at a million miles per hour. These satellites can give up to 24 hours warning of severe solar space weather.

Now the bad news: these satellites serve only a temporary scientific mission, not a long-term early warning system.

NASA also has the aging Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite a million miles from Earth, which can measure the magnetic field of space weather and thus its likely impact on Earth.

"The problem is, we will only have 15 minutes of warning," NOAA's Biesecker told NEXT100. "That's not a lot of time to react." And if the ACE satellite were to fail, only one other satellite could be moved into place. "That's why NOAA is working hard to get a replacement up there," he said.

Then there's the problem of what to do with the warning. Several grid operators in North America (particularly in the Northeast and New England) have well-codified procedures for dealing with solar magnetic storms. But when the crunch comes, will they really bring down the grid, risking enormous cost and customer inconvenience, just because of an uncertain solar storm prediction? The Quebec power grid crashed in 1989 despite two-day-advance notice of major storming, Biesecker noted.

With so many doomsday scenarios circulating these days, from global flu epidemics to asteroid impacts, it's hard to focus on yet another. But the threat to our way of life from widespread grid failures would be immense. A relatively small investment in improved satellite monitoring and grid protection equipment would be insurance well worth buying.

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

If you want to take your mind off the bad economy and global warming, try thinking instead about the possible collapse of advanced industrial civilization in the northern hemisphere.

Like Hurricane Katrina, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history, this disaster scenario involves a storm--but on the sun, not on earth. Katrina cost the country around $100 billion. A really bad geomagnetic storm, the solar equivalent of a hurricane, could wipe out major portions of North America's power grid, costing upward of $2 trillion in the first year alone, and requiring up to a decade for full recovery.

And that's not counting the effects on Europe, China and Russia.

That estimate was published earlier this year by the National Academy of Science in a sober but terrifying report, Severe Space Weather Events - Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

Most of us know that space weather can disrupt radio communications and, on rare occasions, even put satellites at risk. A solar storm in 1994 knocked a Canadian telecommunications satellite out of service for six months at a cost of more than $50 million; one in 2003 disrupted a Federal Aviation Administration GPS system for 30 hours; and another in 2005 forced the diversion of 26 United Airlines flights to avoid radio blackouts. Satellite disruptions caused by solar storms cost the government about $100 million a year, the Department of Defense estimates.

But the sun's fury occasionally hits much closer to home. On March 13, 1989, as horrified grid operators watched alarms go off, voltage surges extinguished power to all of Quebec province. Six million people lost service for nine hours--some for days.

The cause was a blob of plasma--superhot charged particles--blasted from the sun at a speed of several hundred miles per second. Weighing billions of tons, such eruptions cause havoc with orbiting electrical equipment, the Earth's ionosphere, and, in severe cases like 1989, electrical grids on the ground that act like giant receiving antennas.

Last year, the National Research Council convened a workshop to assess how vulnerable power grids remain to extreme space weather events since the 1989 outage.

The gathered scientists and policymakers noted that the 1989 storm was only one-tenth as strong as a megastorm that raged in May 1921. Both were dwarfed by an even mightier storm that struck in 1859. The latter superstorm produced bright red and green aurora lights over Cuba, wreaked havoc with the Earth's magnetic field and electrocuted telegraph operators.

A study presented by Metatech Corporation estimated that a storm like the one in 1921 could fry several hundred power transformers essential to grid operations and black out power to more than 130 million people in North America. (Northern latitudes--especially Canada, the upper Midwest and the East Coast--would be much more vulnerable than California.)

Here's how a report in New Scientist magazine describes what would happen next:

First to go - immediately for some people - is drinkable water. Anyone living in a high-rise apartment, where water has to be pumped to reach them, would be cut off straight away. For the rest, drinking water will still come through the taps for maybe half a day. With no electricity to pump water from reservoirs, there is no more after that.

There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or overground. . . . supermarket shelves would empty very quickly - delivery trucks could only keep running until their tanks ran out of fuel, and there is no electricity to pump any more from the underground tanks at filling stations.

Back-up generators would run at pivotal sites - but only until their fuel ran out. For hospitals, that would mean about 72 hours of running a bare-bones, essential care only, service. After that, no more modern healthcare.

The truly shocking finding is that this whole situation would not improve for months, maybe years: melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced. . . something that can take up to 12 months.

Even when some systems are capable of receiving power again, there is no guarantee there will be any to deliver. Almost all natural gas and fuel pipelines require electricity to operate. . . . 

With no power for heating, cooling or refrigeration systems, people could begin to die within days. There is immediate danger for those who rely on medication. Lose power to New Jersey, for instance, and you have lost a major centre of production of pharmaceuticals for the entire US.

As the National Research Council committee concluded, "A quantitative and comprehensive assessment of the societal and economic impacts of severe space weather will be a truly daunting task."

Tomorrow: What is being done to prepare?

Posted by: Leonard Anderson

Several items relating to the business and technology of clean energy caught our attention this week:

• Toyota aims to build a small car with a bioplastic body made of seaweed. The vehicle would be based on the Japanese automaker's 926-pound 1/X plug-in hybrid concept car which has a carbon-fiber reinforced plastic body made from oil. A Toyota manager sees a future for new car materials manufactured from plants, saying he wants to create such a car from seaweed because Japan is surrounded by the sea.
• Portugal's Energias de Portugal and Seattle-based Principle Power Inc. plan a utility-scale, deepwater floating wind farm offshore Portugal but details for now are slim. Principle Power would first install a single "WindFloat" platform for a technology demonstration. The company also plans to build a 150-megawatt deepwater wind farm off the  Oregon coast.
• Closer to home, the popular Muir Woods National Monument across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco will revamp its cafe in the redwoods park to a sustainable menu and toss out bottled water, soda, refined sugar and high-fructose corn syrup. All the provisions will come from within 50 miles, mostly from Marin Organic, an association of organic producers in Marin County. Local farmers will also meet with park visitors. We'll be on alert for similar steps at other state and national parks.

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

The American Wind Energy Association's call for more investment in electric transmission, noted in Len Anderson's posting, won a major endorsement today from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), whose mission is to ensure the reliability of the bulk power system in North America.

In its 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, NERC highlights both the extraordinary growth of wind power and the challenges posed by integrating such an intermittent resource into the nation's power system.

Over the next 10 years, NERC predicts, the total capacity of wind farms in North America will soar 750 percent--but this clean, renewable power will only do us good if high-capacity transmission lines connect big cities and other load centers with turbines in West Texas, the Dakotas, and other remote areas.

New transmission is also needed to connect reserve power sources, which can be cranked up when the wind dies down.

Unfortunately, owing to local opposition and environmental concerns, transmission permitting, siting and construction typically takes 7 to 10 years, much longer than for new generation, according to the report.

"We need more transmission resources to maintain reliability and achieve environmental goals," commented Rick Sergel, president and CEO of NERC. "Transmission lines are the critical link between new generation and customers, yet we continue to see transmission development lag behind generation additions. Faster siting, permitting, and construction of transmission resources will be vital to keeping the lights on in the coming years."

Posted by: Leonard Anderson

The announcement today by American Electric Power and Duke Energy to build a $1 billion, 240-mile transmission line in Indiana points out the challenges to link new supplies of renewable energy with utility customer load.

The 765-kilovolt line proposed by AEP and Duke would connect AEP's Rockport Station east of Evansville, Ind., with Duke's Greentown Station near Kokomo, Ind. The line could tap more than 3,000 megawatts of wind power planned in central Indiana.

The proposed joint venture project faces a number of state and federal regulatory hurdles and would be completed at the earliest in 2014. Approvals would have to come from the Midwestern Independent System Operator and the PJM Interconnection. The JV also must file in Indiana to operate as a transmission utility and seek rate approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Utility customers would pay for the project in rates.

Overcoming regulatory hurdles for siting and developing new transmission lines for solar and wind energy in remote areas in the Midwest, California, desert Southwest, Texas and other states is critical for the development renewable enrgy supplies. We'll keep an eye on this latest proposal in the Hoosier State.

Posted by: Leonard Anderson

Pacific Gas and Electric Company is committed to developing more supplies of concentrated solar power, citing the technology's availability during high-demand hours, relative cost effectiveness, and capacity to meet power demands, the California utility told federal lawmakers today. 

Fong Wan, PG&E's Vice President of Energy Procurement, told the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources that concentrated solar power (CSP) could, in theory, produce seven times the energy needed to serve California. Wan spoke at a committee field hearing on solar thermal power in Albuquerque, New Mexico. PG&E has four solar thermal supply contracts for more than 1,700 megawatts of power, enough capacity to meet almost 10 percent of the utility's peak summer needs.

A study prepared by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory suggests that costs for CSP technologies could decline significantly, from approximately 16 cents per kilowatt-hour on average today, to approximately 8 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2015, Wan said in prepared testimony. The reduction in seven years is premised on an assumption that at least 4,000 megawatts of CSP will be built by then - not just contracted for - to achieve learning curve benefits.

"Photovoltaic technologies are also making great progress for utility-scale applications and we hope to be in a position to announce contracts for utility-scale PV applications soon," Wan said. "But - given these advantages - it's reasonable to ask why the country is not seeing greater progress on renewables."

Wan identified ways for lawmakers to help advance thermal power technologies and the burgeoning renewable energy industry. Despite falling costs, CSP can't compete on price with electricity fueled by natural gas. "We are confident that will change as economies of scale are achieved. But in the interim, federal production and investment tax credits are absolutely essential for continued progress," he said. Wan urged the government to extend the credits and also remove the ITC exclusion for regulated utilities.

Siting and developing new transmission lines to carry power from remote locations to customers will also enable renewables to expand, Wan said. He noted that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told the committee last month that the West alone will need 7,500 miles of new transmission lines over the next decade to expand renewable energy production. Wan also said integrating intermittent renewable resources into an overall supply is needed and one key is developing storage technology. He applauded Congress for including an energy storage R&D program in legislation last year.

"In this time of high energy prices, a weak economy, and heightened focus on security, the federal government is uniquely positioned to provide clarity of vision and foster stable growth in this critical sector of the energy market," Wan said.

You can read Fong Wan's testimony at:

http://energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=a7228ca1-a50a-c91d-59d8-a682d15052ad