Feb 22 2010

Where the Wind Blows

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

Finally, 67 years after it first opened, the hit musical Oklahoma has received official confirmation from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory that "the wind blows sweeping down the plains" with dramatic force.

According to a new report from NREL, the wind generation potential in Oklahoma is nearly 1.8 million gigawatt-hours annually, or more than a third of total U.S. electric generation in 2008 (4.1 million GWh). 

And Oklahoma' s wind resources rank only 9th among states in the continental United States. Texas leads the pack with annual potential wind generation of 6.5 million GWh--50 percent more than total U.S. generation in 2008. Other Plains states also have immense potential, as shown in this map.

And what about California? It ranks a measley 19th, with potential generation of only 105,000 GWh. On the other hand, PG&E's total electricity sales in 2008 were 82,000 GWh, so that's hardly a trivial number.

These new estimates represent a huge increase since a 1991 asessment by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, which found California's total potential to be about 59,000 GWh annually, Oklahoma's at 725,000 GWh, and Texas's at 1,190,000 GWh. (Mississippi still takes last place, at zero potential.)

Nationwide, NREL's new estimate of potential wind energy is more than three times the old estimate and more than nine times total U.S. electricity consumption.

The increased estimate reflects in part the enhanced ability to today's immense turbines to grab wind energy at heights of 80 meters or more, where it blows relatively unobstructed by surface effects and obstructions.

The gap between existing and potential resources is immense, even in California, which was one of the earliest adopters of wind power. Total installed wind capacity in California was 2,794 MW in 2009, less than a tenth of its estimated potential capacity of 34,000 MW. Texas had more than three times as much installed capacity, 9,410 MW, but a total potential more than two hundred times that, according to NREL.

The big unknown is what fraction of the potential can ever be realized, especially given intense local opposition to siting of huge (and to some eyes, ugly) turbines and transmission towers near populated communities, recreation areas and sensitive habitat.

Nearly everywhere you go, from Cape Cod to California's Mohave Desert, activists are seeking to block large wind energy projects. There's even one doctor who claims people living near such facilities may suffer from "Wind Turbine Syndrome," which allegedly brings on sleep disorders, headaches and panic attacks. These claims have been debunked by other scientists assembled by the wind industry, but good luck trying to stamp them out once they're all over the Internet. 

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