Jul 03 2009

Climate Changes

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

Several news stories on the science and politics of global warming caught our attention last week:

Big chunks of the state of Louisiana are destined to sink underwater as land subsides and sea levels rise, according to a new study co-authored by a scientist at Exxon. Human causes include not only global warming but thousands of dams and levees that block sediment deposits from the Mississippi that used to build up low-lying lands near the coast. "We conclude that significant drowning is inevitable," the authors write in a paper published in Nature Geoscience.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobile is drawing heat from the British and Australian media for apparently reneging on its promise last year to "discontinue contributions" to climate-change skeptics. The conservative Daily Telegraph reported that the world's largest oil company made several hundred thousand dollars in grants in 2008 to such groups, including the National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas, the Heritage Foundation in Washington, and the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ExxonMobile also contributes to some environmental groups, the paper noted. "We are funding people on all sides of that debate," a company spokesman told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Germany, UK and France are taking the most aggressive steps to fight global warming among G8 countries, according to a new report sponsored by WWF and the German insurer Allianz SE. Only Canada and Russia rank worse than the United States. However, President Obama plans to meet next week with Russian leaders to promote collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

After last Friday's close vote in the House of Representatives to pass the Waxman-Markey climate change bill--a tribute to Speaker Nancy Pelosi's "arm-twisting" in the words of Politico--attention now moves to the Senate. One of the biggest threats to passage comes from opposition by agricultural interests, despite major concessions they extracted in the House. The American Farm Bureau Federation opposes the bill partly because it may raise the cost of fertilizer and fuel.

It will be interesting to see whether supporters succeed in making farm-state Senators aware of how much their constituents have at stake as the earth warms. The recent report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, commissioned by President Bush and based on the expert findings of 13 federal departments and agencies, has this to say about the projected impact of warming on the farm belt:

• Midwest:  "While the longer growing season provides the potential for increased crop yields, increases in heat waves, floods, droughts, insects, and weeds will present increasing challenges to managing crops, livestock, and forests. Spring flooding is likely to delay planting. An increase in disease-causing pathogens, insect pests, and weeds cause additional challenges for agriculture. Livestock production is expected to become more costly as higher temperatures stress livestock, decreasing productivity and increasing costs associated with the needed ventilation and cooling equipment."
• Great Plains: "Agriculture, ranching, and natural lands, already under pressure due to an increasingly limited water supply, are very likely to also be stressed by rising temperatures. . . . Pests will spread northward and milder winters and earlier springs will encourage greater numbers and earlier emergence of insects."
• Southeast:  "Effects of increased heat include more heat-related illness; declines in forest growth and agricultural crop production due to the combined effects of heat stress and declining soil moisture; declines in cattle production; increased buckling of pavement and railways; and reduced oxygen levels in streams and lakes, leading to fish kills and declines in aquatic species diversity. Decreased water availability is very likely to affect the region's economy as well as its natural systems. . . . Sea-level rise and the likely increase in hurricane intensity and associated storm surge will be among the most serious consequences of climate change. . . . a large portion of the Southeast coastal zone could be threatened. Ecological thresholds are likely to be crossed throughout the region, causing major disruptions to ecosystems and to the benefits they provide to people."

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