Next100 - A Dialogue on the Next Century of Energy

Sep 15 2008

Wind Power: is Pickens Blowin' Smoke?

This year's H. Ross Perot award for "eccentric Texas billionaire who most captures the public's imagination" undoubtedly goes to T. Boone Pickens, the oil wildcatter and corporate raider who has become a born-again proponent of wind power.

His multibillion dollar initiative to build the world's largest wind farm in West Texas, and his "Pickens Plan" to wean the country off foreign oil, have spawned media headlines, crowds of admirers, and copycat investors aplenty.

While much of the reaction has been admiring, contrarian author Matthew Quirk, in the October issue of Atlantic Monthly, takes issue with all the hype in a story titled, "Blowback: Is Wind the New Ethanol?"

Quirk spotlights two big problems with wind power. The first is the need to build billions of dollars worth of high-voltage transmission lines to connect new wind farms, often located in remote areas, with cities that need power. This need is particularly pressing given the stupendous growth of the wind industry, which reportedly doubled its installed capacity in the United States in just the last two years to more than 20,000 MW:

"Accommodating wind power on the scale foreseen nationally may require 12,000 to 19,000 miles of new high-power lines crisscrossing the country (by way of comparison, the interstate highway system runs 46,837 miles), plunging large parts of America into NIMBY hell."

The second problem is that no one can control when the wind blows. As every sailor knows, winds have a way of disappearing just when you are farthest from shore. The same goes with wind power: it often dies down on hot summer afternoons, just when demand for air conditioning peaks.

Just as annoying, wind power can surge late at night, forcing transmission grid operators and utilities to "spill" unused power in order to avoid overloading the system.

Quirk concludes that "it's hard to ignore the parallels to the recent ethanol boom, which was also fueled by mandates and subsidies, and which is now viewed almost universally as a disaster." A "turbine-building frenzy" could lead to higher energy prices, unreliable operations, and ultimately a wind-power bust, he warns.

But casual readers may not realize that his caveats about wind power have been discussed and analyzed for years. For example, the California Independent System Operator last year reported favorably on the feasibility of integrating intermittent renewable power into the state's electric system. And this July, the Department of Energy released a report supporting the ambitious vision of "20% Wind Energy by 2030."

"Transmission and power variability are real concerns but not showstoppers by any means," says Michael Goggin, electric industry analyst at the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) in Washington, D.C. "We can overcome those concerns through better policies and operational procedures. There will be some costs involved but they aren't insurmountable."

The cost of power transmission, for example, is actually a relatively small fraction of customers' bills. Finding politically acceptable routes for high-voltage lines is admittedly no easy task, but this challenge applies to most kinds of power generation, not just wind.

Utilities can deal with power variability by acquiring backup gas-fired generation, for use when the wind stops blowing. But here again, wind doesn't represent a unique problem. Utilities must have power reserves on hand to meet unpredictable loads or to deal with a failure at a conventional generation plant.

Utilities can also store excess wind energy at night for use during peak-load periods in the day. PG&E operates a suitable storage system that uses off-peak power to pump water into the Helms hydropower reservoir, and the utility has applied to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to build two more similar facilities.

Hal La Flash, director of emerging clean technology policy at Pacific Gas and Electric, says wind power is not only clean but one of the most affordable kinds of renewable energy, though costs are rising along with other forms of power.

PG&E has signed two wind power contracts this year, bringing the utility's total amount of renewable wind energy under contract or delivered to more than 1,250 MW.

But La Flash adds, "Nothing is perfect. That's why we have a diverse renewables portfolio of wind, geothermal, biomass and solar. We don't hype any one kind of power. Everything should be done in a balanced way."

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall | Comments (0) Permalink